Nearly all the rents on which Egypt is presently dependent may be jeopardized
if the political situation in the Near East changes. The geopolitical importance
of Egypt may be reduced if the conflict between Israel and the Arab states
is resolved. The revenues gained from the Suez Canal are at risk if the war
with Israel flares up again, as happened between 1967 and 1975. Similarly
vulnerable to war situations are the remittances of Egyptians working abroad
and income from tourism, as was demonstrated by the situation during the
wars against Iraq in 1991 and 2003, after the massacre of tourists in Luxor in
1997 and during the Second Intifada after 2000. Petroleum is a non-renewable
resource and due to be depleted within a foreseeable span of time; already
the government has had to limit its exploitation. In 2002 the USA threatened
to freeze the capital development aid of US$2 billion which it used to grant
Egypt annually, if it did not stop persecuting intellectuals, and US$130 million
which had already been promised were withdrawn immediately (see Internet
2002b). In short, the rentier economic system of Egypt is anything but sus-
tainable. It has rendered the country highly vulnerable to recurrent economic
crises, hindered the development of the domestic economy and strengthened
an undemocratic political system.